Opening on over 4000 screens and guaranteed to win the weekend is the Harry Potter prequel Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them. But just how big will it open?
This is has been a year of franchise flops. With films like TMNT: Out Of The Shadows and Alice Through the looking Glass (both finishing around the 80,000,000 domestic mark) being borderline disasters. Can Beasts break this pattern? Very likely. TMNT and Alice were following films that although financially successful were not exactly critically praised. The Harry Potter franchise is a completely different beast (mind the pun) and as long as Fantastic Beasts is met with a reasonable amount of critic and fan praise it should be able to emulate its predecessors success somewhat. (In similar fashion to The Hobbit franchise following L.O.T.R).
With a mega wide release and positive albeit not Stella reviews (currently 77% on rottentomatoes) this new franchise starter should open with around $84,000,000 and hope to hold well from there.
The second wide release of the week is the Hailee Steinfeld coming of age ‘dramedy’ The Edge Of Seventeen. As the plot premise explains “high-school life gets even more unbearable for Nadine when her best friend, Krista, starts dating her older brother” this is hardly high drama stuff. But with Stella reviews (92% rottentomatoes) and a star that is growing (steinfeld has also released a few reasonably successful singles) this could brake out somewhat from the genres own commercial limitations.
After the mega success of Juno many teen based dramadies tried to emulate its success with varying success. Films such Youth in Revolt ($15,000,000 total) Adventureland ($16,000,000) and Whip It ($13,000,000) all basically flopping.
Opening just shy of 2000 theatres it’s pretty obvious the studio isn’t expecting Juno based numbers, but with strong reviews and a star on the rise this should open a little higher than its genre predecessors. Expect an opening around the $11,000,000 mark.
Opening around the 1,500 theatres is the Miles Teller boxing biopic Bleed For This . The film follows the true life story of Vinny Pazienza a two time world champion boxer who after a near fatal car accident is told he may never walk again, let alone box again. Vinny defies the odds and returns to the ring to continue fighting. The film is getting mixed to positive reviews (72%) but with a leading man not known for opening movies and a boxer arguably a lot less famous than Roberto Duran ( Duran based biopic Hands of Stone underwhelmed earlier this year finishing just shy of $5,000,000 total) don’t expect Bleed for This to make much noise and open around the $ 3,000,000 mark.
Expanding to just over 1,000 theatres with very average reviews(46%) is Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk . The film has star power in Vin Diesel,Kristen Stewart, Chris tucker and Steve Martin. But with a subject matter that largely conflicts with audiences pre conceived opinions of these actors, effectively turning Billy Lynne into somewhat of a oddity. Also With direct competition from the better reviewed Hacksaw Ridge in its 3rd weekend and a theatre count that shows the studios lack of confidence in the film expect billy Lynne to get lost amongst the noise. Likely opening around the $5,000,000 mark.
Weekend predictions
1)Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
$84,000,000 (4100 theatres)
2) Doctor Strange
$22,000,000 (3694 theatres)
3) Trolls
$19,000,000 (3945 theatres)
4) Arrival
$13,500,000 (2335 theatres)
5) The Edge of Seventeen
$11,000,000 (1945 theatres)
6) Hacksaw Ridge
$7,600,000 (2868 theatres)
7) Almost Christmas
$7,200,000 (2379 theatres)
8) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
$4,800,000 (1,176 theatres)
9) Bleed For This
$3,200,000 (1549 theatres)
10) The Accountant
$2,700,000 (1423 theatres)
